The official CS2 case odds come from Perfect World, the company that runs Counter-Strike 2 in mainland China, which has published them since September 2017. For a case opened with a key, they give a 79.923% chance of a Mil-Spec skin and 0.256% for a knife or gloves, the same CS:GO case odds that have applied since that first disclosure. Below is every category on the page, what the numbers mean for a single skin, and what they mean over many openings.
Where the official CS2 case odds come from
China's rules on online games require operators to publish the probability of every paid random item. PCGamesN reported on September 11, 2017 that Perfect World, Valve's partner there, had released CS:GO's odds with the game's Chinese launch. Our article on Counter-Strike in China covers the licence and the rules behind it.
The disclosure page still carries its 2017 date, but it has been kept up to date. The version online in October 2026 lists the Armory Pass and both CS2 terminals, links a public list of winners, and says that all current odds follow its rules and that any change will be announced. It also notes that the rates are statistics over a large number of players, so a single player's results can differ.
The rules behind every percentage
The page states the odds as rules first:
- Every item of the same grade has the same chance.
- At Covert and below, each grade is 1:5 against the grade beneath it.
- Where a container has a rare special item (a knife or gloves), it is 2:5 against a Covert.
- Where an item can come as StatTrak, the StatTrak chance is 1:10.
Put as weights, a keyed case is 625 parts Mil-Spec, 125 Restricted, 25 Classified, 5 Covert and 2 knife or gloves, out of 782. Every percentage below follows from that.
CS2 case odds for a keyed case
| Result | Chance per opening | About 1 in |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec | 79.923% | 1.25 |
| Restricted | 15.985% | 6 |
| Classified | 3.197% | 31 |
| Covert | 0.639% | 156 |
| Knife or gloves | 0.256% | 391 |
Each grade's share is split equally between its items, so the chance of one particular skin depends on how many share its grade. The Kilowatt Case, according to Valve's item files, holds seven Mil-Spec, five Restricted, three Classified and two Covert skins. Each of its two Coverts, the AK-47 | Inheritance and the AWP | Chrome Cannon, therefore comes out about 0.32% of the time, or roughly one opening in 313. The 0.256% for the gold tier is shared the same way across every knife finish in the pool.
StatTrak multiplies in. In a case with knives, a StatTrak knife comes to about 0.026%, one opening in 3,910, as PCGamesN worked out in 2017, and a StatTrak copy of one Kilowatt Covert to about 0.032%. Souvenir items can never be StatTrak, so the 1:10 roll doesn't apply to souvenir packages; our guide to StatTrak vs Souvenir explains why.
What 0.256% means over many openings
The odds are per opening, and each opening is independent. Worked out from the published rate, the chance of getting at least one knife or pair of gloves is:
| Openings | Chance of at least one |
|---|---|
| 10 | 2.5% |
| 100 | 22.6% |
| 391 | 63.3% |
| 1,000 | 92.3% |
So "one in 391" is an average, not a promise: after 391 openings, more than a third of players would still have none.
Souvenir packages, capsules, the Armory and terminals
The same page covers every other container, grouped by which grades it holds:
| Container | Lowest grade | Top grade and its chance |
|---|---|---|
| Souvenir or map collection package, Consumer to Covert | Consumer, 79.872% | Covert, 0.027% |
| Souvenir package, Consumer to Mil-Spec | Consumer, 80.537% | Mil-Spec, 3.356% |
| Sticker capsule, High Grade to Exotic | High Grade, 80.645% | Exotic, 3.226% |
| Sticker capsule, High Grade to Extraordinary | High Grade, 80.128% | Extraordinary, 0.641% |
| Pin capsule | High Grade, 53.333% | Extraordinary, 6.667% |
| Armory weapon collections | Industrial, 80.026% | Covert, 0.128% |
| Genesis Terminal | Mil-Spec, 80.128% | Covert, 0.641% |
| Dead Hand Terminal | Same as a keyed case | Rare special item, 0.256% |
The top line explains the rarity of Souvenir Dragon Lores. The Cobblestone Collection has a single Covert, the AWP | Dragon Lore, so each Cobblestone package gave one about 0.027% of the time, roughly one in 3,700. Our guide to Souvenir packages covers how those packages were handed out.
The page's Armory entries cover the charm and sticker collections and the Overpass 2024, Graphic Design, Sport & Field, Spy Tech and Arabesque weapon collections. Terminals need a caveat. A terminal doesn't hand you one item: as Dot Esports described the Genesis Terminal, an in-game arms dealer makes up to five offers, one at a time, and you accept or decline each. The page gives one set of chances per terminal without saying how they apply to those offers.
The X-Ray Scanner: seeing the item first
In some countries Valve shows you the result before you pay. Since its release notes of September 30, 2019, players in France must put every container into the X-Ray Scanner, which reveals the item before a key is bought. Valve's update of March 16, 2026 extended the same rule to Germany and the Netherlands. Steam Support's FAQ adds that a scanned container is consumed, its contents are locked, and you can't scan another until you buy and claim the revealed item. Keyless containers such as Souvenir packages open without it.
What the odds don't cover
- Wear and pattern. The page gives grades and items, not float values or pattern seeds.
- Case-opening sites. The odds apply to containers opened in the game. In March 2024 Perfect World told players it had licensed no third-party case-opening site and that such sites pass off their own blind boxes as cases and manipulate drop rates.
- Value. Odds say how often each grade drops, not what it's worth. How to compare cases by what they contain is the subject of our guide to the best cases to open in CS2.
Sources
- 概率公示 (probability disclosure) — CS:GO China official site
- Here are CS:GO's loot box odds — PCGamesN
- items_game.txt — GameTracking-CS2 on GitHub
- Release Notes for 9/30/2019 — Counter-Strike blog
- Counter-Strike 2 Update, March 16, 2026 — Counter-Strike 2 news
- CS2 - X-Ray Scanner — Steam Support
- How does the Genesis Uplink Terminal work in CS2? — Dot Esports
- 关于CS游戏外开箱的告玩家书 (letter to players on case opening outside the game) — CS:GO China official site
